Some within Labour Want Starmer Out. The Prime Minister Assures Me He'll Survive – and Britain's Economic Outlook Is Set to Get Better.
"I'll remain in the same seat by 2027," Starmer stated, noting that if the discussion went well, he might invite us into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in 2026.
There is never truly time off for those in the top job. Just an hour before we sat down, Starmer had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his key ally, US President Donald Trump, had just targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.
When the discussion, which was considerably lengthier than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been charged in New York.
A Refresh for the New Year
With the year starts, Starmer seems to have had a kind of a refresh. Maybe even just a little downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.
This seemed to have resulted in better spirits than at the saggy end of 2025, a awful political year for him.
Yet, are he and his colleagues being unrealistic if they believe his political fate are poised to get better?
Party Concerns
The uncomfortable truth for the prime minister is that numerous of his fellow MPs believe he's ineffective at his job. Some of them would rather take a risk and get him out sooner rather than later.
However Starmer was having none of it when we spoke on Saturday morning.
On several occasions he told me he'd be "assessed at the general election", insisting no one would take his electoral mandate from him – even if the optimal path of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to switch leader.
"This is the fight of our generation and I plan to guide the party," he affirmed.
Upcoming Local Votes
The issue for the PM is that he will be assessed well ahead of then – in a mega set of elections in May across the UK. He attempted to protest, perhaps excessively, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.
Accurate – up to a point. But even though he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.
This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would walk away, should a his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections prove disastrous for Labour.
An Optimistic Outlook
He attempted to rationalise his unpopularity by saying the public was reasonably impatient for things to get better. He tried to assure me, and the nation, that 2026 would be a change.
The economic situation would improve in the face of rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the government enacted during their initial turbulent year began to show results.
- He pledged to shut asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he did not set a new date on that.
- He added too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
- He disclosed for the first occasion that Western partners were now discussing how to coordinate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.
His core point is that in 2026 the country will "turn the corner".
Familiar Arguments
The prime minister may have spoken with more energy than I've seen from him for a while – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.
However, in spite of encountering pressure from various quarters for a bolder approach, with increased political direction, more dynamism, more pace and more urgency, his points were repeated ones.
When he finds himself in considerable political peril, is a different approach required a different script?
No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its as planned.
The Prime Minister's challenges are not just because governing is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have erred, including in the last few weeks.
Regrets and Risks
The PM admitted that he was sorry for saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.
Starmer blamed "the system" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.
And he is facing evident political dangers as the year unfolds. His friendship with the US president takes on a new complication after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.
Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the notion he would be at ease with such action seems implausible.
Policy Stances and Pressures
He told me he was a "career-long champion of international law" but we "just lack the entire story at the moment".
Opponents called for him to condemn it before the interview. And the government is expected to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the near future.
There has also always been growing tension in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the results of Brexit.
Sir Keir rejects he's doing that, but his new specific pledge to move closer with the EU's single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will likely elicit protests that he is breaking his promise never to try to undo the choices that followed Brexit.
A decision to align with more of the single market will satisfy many on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to